In stark contrast to the widespread “trickle rut” that occurred in the previous year, the whitetail rut of 2025 is expected to reach its climax in the early part of November in both the Northeast and the Midwest.
Some people may be wondering why it is so early to predict the deer rut for the following fall, given that winter is nearing its end.
Nevertheless, this time of year, despite the fact that snow is falling at an alarming rate, is when I have been asked to bracket the hottest week or weeks. This is done so that deer hunters have plenty of time to organize their vacations or to plan in advance when they will hunt this fall.
Furthermore, now that I have a great deal of information, in addition to a multitude of anecdotal evidence derived from my own personal experience and the accounts of other hunters, it is not at all a problem… Even while my heart is turning more toward fantasies of gobbler hunting and trout fishing, I must admit that my heart is turning more toward such dreams.
My approach to forecasting the rut is somewhat straightforward, despite the fact that it is certainly quite complicated.
Also, perhaps some background information will be helpful in explaining the formula.
Ever since the early 1970s, even before the compound bow was invented, I have been hunting the whitetail rut with a serious intent. I quickly came to the realization that the whitetail rut of one year was not the same as the rut of the next year, despite the widespread belief that the peak of the breeding season occurred in the same manner each and every year of the year.
During that time, I would go out and hunt with vigor, document and write about the rut, and I would do all of this with the knowledge and expectation that the subsequent deer season would be the same.
As a result of the fact that I was obviously so wrong, I experienced feelings of sadness and even embarrassment practically every year.
It is without a doubt that the apparent rut appeared early in some years, while in others it appeared later.
If one is out in the woods on a daily basis, as I was for many years and decades, it is relatively easy to comprehend the level of activity that is involved in the process of breeding deer.
By the late 1980s, a few hunters in the Northeast and Midwest had begun writing about moon phases having something to do with the date of the deer rut. Each of these moon phases had their own set of ardent supporters as well as their own set of ardent opponents.
During the time that I was writing about the moon’s influence on the rut, opinions with both positive and negative connotations emerged from the shadows like mushrooms on the grass after a light summer shower.
I went through the process of reading and studying every moon-based deer rut methodology, but despite the fact that each of them had some compelling arguments, sound reasoning, and, of course, pictures of large bucks, I was never really convinced by any of them.
However, there were a few that were near and shed information on the levels of activity among whitetails. This is clearly preferable to the expectation of heated rut action occurring at the same time every year, which is obviously and empirically false.
As a result, I made the decision to initiate a simple spreadsheet, record everything, and compare those years against one another over the course of several decades.
When I was in college, I was studying science, notably astronomy, chemistry, and zoology. The pattern of the whitetail rut not only revealed itself, but it also brought back memories of past college experiences.
Among the members of the Cervidae family, white-tailed deer are referred to as “short-day breeders.” Consequently, this indicates that light and photoperiodism exert a significant amount of impact over the hormones and pheromones that they produce. From a similar perspective, even plants that are placed on your windowsill will tilt their leaves toward the light.
A gland is present in animals such as deer, and it is responsible for the production and transmission of chemical signals. These signals generate breeding pheromones in reaction to changes in light. Deer and other animals have been subjected to testing in dark cages by researchers, and some of them have even experimented with blind deer.
Exact repetition of the moon occurs every 19 years, with the full moon, new moon, and other phases of the moon occurring on precisely the same dates.
When I superimposed my data and anecdotal experiences on the lunar schedule, I found a surprising association that was mostly unaffected by other external elements such as rainy autumns, early winters, hot Octobers, and so on.
Therefore, the rut forecast for this year is based on what occurred in the deer woods not only 19 years ago, but also 38 years ago, when the full moon of November landed on November 4th. Not only did it have the exact same light in that particular month, but it also had the same light in all the months leading up to it, so to speak, setting the pheromonal stage.
When compared to the previous year, the sweet spot of the rut, also known as the magical time, will be between Halloween and Veteran’s Day this season.
FAQs
When is the best time to hunt during the rut?
The peak rut period, usually in mid-November, offers the best hunting opportunities as bucks are highly active and less cautious.
How does the moon phase affect deer movement?
Many hunters believe that a full moon leads to more nighttime movement, while a new moon can result in increased daytime activity.
Can weather conditions delay the rut?
Extreme heat or sudden temperature changes can slightly alter deer movement, but the rut’s timing is primarily controlled by daylight hours.
What gear should I bring for rut hunting?
Essential gear includes a reliable rifle or bow, scent control products, calls, a good pair of binoculars, and appropriate camouflage clothing.