The ongoing La Niña, which began in January, is expected to fade by May, with a 60% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions emerging. Despite La Niña's usual cooling effect, global temperatures have remained high.
A sudden warming of ocean waters off Peru, known as El Niño Costero, has raised sea temperatures by more than 5°C above average. This could bring heavy rainfall, flooding, and other extreme weather to Peru and surrounding regions.
If El Niño Costero lasts until autumn, it may disrupt fisheries (especially anchovy populations) and agriculture in Peru, as well as increase the risk of deadly flooding and diseases like dengue fever.
A weakening La Niña and warming in the eastern Pacific could reduce the likelihood of an overly active Atlantic hurricane season by limiting storm-favorable conditions.
La Niña typically cools the planet, but its brief duration means record-high global temperatures may continue, fueled by widespread marine heat waves.
While a full El Niño event is unlikely in 2025, experts remain cautious about how the Pacific’s shifting temperatures might affect global climate patterns.
Even as La Niña fades, its atmospheric effects could linger. However, the warming near South America might counteract its impact, increasing the likelihood of another near-record-warm year